Hawaii Travel

Archive for July, 2009

Former Hurricane Carlos is now crashing so fast that it may no longer be a tropical cyclone by the time it passes into Central Pacific waters tomorrow.

The storm, which has bulked up to hurricane size several times in its complex history, is moving westward well south of the Island. It has dropped from hurricane, through tropical storm, and was termed a tropical depression at this writing.

(Image: The two weak systems, Carlos to the south and Dolores to the north, move toward dissipation. Credit: NOAA.)

National Weather Service forecasters expect it to decline from its current 30 mile per hour wind speed to 25 tomorrow. At that point it will be termed a remnant low. It is forecast to dissipate entirely by Sunday or so.

Tropical Storm Dolores continues to move northwestward well to the northeast of Carlos. This system, which attained tropical storm strength Wednesday, was weakening overnight.

Dolores has winds in the 40 mile-per-hour range, but is moving into colder water that is less able to support a tropical system. It could dissipate by Monday, well before it enters the Central Pacific.

At this point, it looks like neither will enter Hawaiian waters with enough oomph to be a tropical cyclone.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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A massive pulse of carbon dioxide entered the world’s atmosphere 55 million years ago, in association with a significant rise in global temperature.

But it seems to have gotten a lot hotter than it should have.

(Image: The scientific drilling ship JOIDES Resolution, seen off Diamond Head, conducted ancient sediment samples during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program, which provided the ship picture. In the inset are some of the deep sea sediment cores collected. The dark red/brown color is a clay section amid lighter calcium carbonate deposits. The clay layer represents the beginning of a period of global warming and ocean acidification 55 million years ago. Inset credit: J.C. Zachos).

University of Hawai’i researchers who studied the ancient climate event say there are major puzzles about how the atmosphere responded to the input of carbon—puzzles that may be important in the Earth’s current human-caused pulse of carbon dioxide.

One issue is understanding feedback mechanisms. You can calculate how much warmer the atmosphere ought to get by adding carbon dioxide to it. But back in the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 55 million years ago, the temperature got significantly warmer than the amount of new carbon dioxide justified.

Something else must have come into play.

If you’re in a soapbox cart, and you release the brake, you slowly start rolling forward. But if your friends see you release the brake, they step up to give you a shove, and you end up going faster. The response of the friends acts as a feedback mechanism—increasing the impact of simply releasing the brake.

What was the feedback mechanism during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum? During that period temperatures rose 5 to 9 degrees Celsius. But there wasn’t enough carbon dioxide to justify that much temperature rise, said Richard Zeebe, the University of Hawai’i oceanographer who led a team that looked into the question.

Their study is published in the journal Nature Geosciences. (Zeebe, R. E., Zachos, J. C., and Dickens, G. R. Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum warming. Nature Geoscience, Advance Online Publication, July 13, 2009.)

The team collected deep sea sediment cores that date back to the Palaeocene-Eocene period.
The implication for modern humans is whether, if we keep dumping carbon dioxide into the air, some feedback mechanism will kick in, causing rapid climate warming—and associated issues with sea level, rainfall, storms and so forth.

The initial source of the Palaeocene-Eocene carbon isn’t entirely clear. It came from some natural carbon reservoir, but “the source remains an open issue,” Zeebe’s paper says.

Other researchers have recreated what temperatures globally were doing that period, and they report the 5 to 9 degree Celsius increase. That’s 9 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit—a lot.

“If the temperature reconstructions are correct, then feedbacks and/or forcings other than atmospheric CO2 caused a major portion of the PETM warming. The origin of this extra warming is unknown at present,” the Zeebe paper says.

One possibility is that the warming caused the release of other greenhouse gases, which in turn prompted more warming.

Clearly, things were different on the planet 55 million years ago, but the possibility of a big, unexpected hike in temperatures is something we need to know about.

“This gap needs to be filled to confidently predict future climate change,” the authors write.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Hurricane Carlos weakened again overnight, its forward movement has slowed, and the storm is now forecast to pass well south of the Big Island Monday, July 20.

Based on the latest predictions from the National Weather Service, the storm should remain far enough south that even its outermost winds should miss the Islands.

(Image: Three-day forecasts illustrated the expected paths of both Hurricane Carlos and Tropical Storm Dolores. Credit: NOAA.)

But Carlos has been intriguingly difficult to predict, and the weather service recognized that in its morning statement.

“The intensity forecast is highly uncertain, particularly in the short term… While the upper-level environment and ocean conditions appear favorable for at least maintaining the current intensity, current satellite trends suggest otherwise,” the service said.

What that means is that on paper, when meteorologists look at water temperatures and winds, the storm pencils out to remain a hurricane. But when forecasters peer down on it from satellite imagery, they see the storm appearing to break up. Its distinct eye—a key feature of strong hurricanes—has disappeared.

At this writing, with wind speeds in the 85-mile-per-hour range, Carlos remains a category 1 hurricane. But the latest forecast suggests that it could slip back into tropical storm strength tomorrow, Thursday.

It should pass into Central Pacific waters—crossing the 140 degree west longitude line—late Friday night or early Saturday. Its path, as currently forecast, would take its center on a westward course between 300 and 400 miles south of South Point.

Meanwhile, the storm following Carlos has been upgraded to a tropical storm, and has been given a name, Tropical Storm Dolores.

Dolores is veering north, which will take it into cooler waters well before it approaches Hawai’i. That suggests it could weaken and perhaps dissipate long before causing the Islands any difficulty.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Hurricane Carlos strengthened further during midday Tuesday, July 14.

Sustained winds were near 100 miles an hour.

(Image: The forecast five-day track of Hurricane Carlos, issued at 11 a.m. Tuesday. Credit: NOAA.)

The storm is expected to pass into the Central Pacific about midday Friday, at which point the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu will begin posting updates on its progress.

Forecasts now suggest that the hurricane will encounter contrary winds aloft, which will weaken it in the coming days. However, it is now expected to maintain hurricane force winds into the weekend.

The current path appears to be keeping it well south of the Islands.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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The ever mercurial Carlos, predicted yesterday to remain a tropical storm, has regained hurricane strength and some models suggest it could become a major hurricane, with winds upward of 90 miles an hour.

Carlos continues to spin on a path that is keeping it well to the south of the Islands, but it has started veering slightly north.

(Image: This 3-D image of Hurricane Carlos was created July 12 from data collected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Thunderstorm tops in the image are shown reaching 9.3 miles into the atmosphere on the east side of Carlos. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce.)

If it were to take a course that could impact the Hawaiian Islands, that would probably happen early to midweek next week. That now seems unlikely, but Carlos has been full of surprises.

It started picking up windspeed shortly after dawn yesterday, and quickly built back from tropical storm to hurricane strength. The National Weather Service is now predicting it will gain more strength in the next couple of days and remain a hurricane at least through the weekend.

“None of the intensity guidance calls for Carlos to peak at higher than about 85 knots,” or a little more than 90 miles an hour, the service said in an advisory.

With its increase in windspeed, the hurricane’s forward progress has slowed somewhat. It is now slated to pass into Hawaiian waters, the Central Pacific, on Friday.

Meanwhile, there are now two weak features following Carlos out of the Eastern Pacific.

The area that earlier was referred to simply as an area of thunderstorms is now being called a tropical low, but it is as mysterious in its behavior as Carlos has been. The weather service reported this feature, now at 13 degrees north and 113 degrees west, “continues to baffle observers with low level swirls growing and dissipating at random within a broad trough with abundant cloudiness blocking satellite view.”

They continue to feel it could intensify into a cyclone.

A still weaker feature, a tropical wave, is found at 4 degrees north and 96 degrees west. Its challenge is to survive contrary winds aloft until it gets into conditions that would allow it to strengthen into something more.

With all this activity in the Eastern Pacific, there still has been no tropical storm this season in the Central Pacific. The average in an El Nino year is in the neighborhood of 4.5 named storms.

Carlos, whatever it looks like when it crosses 140 degrees west longitude, is still on course to be the first of the season.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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so yeah, manoa! i love their little theater there. in fact, i hate to say it, but it’s one of the few reasons why i ever go there. tonight [...]
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The former Hurricane Carlos remains a tropical storm and is now expected to stay one for the near future.

The cyclone, which is now expected to cross from Eastern Pacific to Central Pacific waters Thursday night, has had an up and down forecast, but National Weather Service forecasters say that through the end of the week, the chances are it won’t get back to hurricane strength.

(Image: The anticipated track of Carlos at left, showing its relationship to Hawai’i, with the unnamed incipient cyclone to its right. Credit: NOAA.)

Thus, Tropical Storm Carlos, now with winds at around 50 miles an hour, could get up to 60 or a little more by Wednesday, but is expected to taper weaker by the weekend.

The National Weather Service runs a series of computer models that look at storm futures in different ways. Most agree with the weakening scenario and some suggest Carlos could dissipate altogether by the weekend. But there’s one that argues it could still make it back to hurricane strength as it passes into Hawaiian waters.

The current course of the storm could keep it far south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Meanwhile, the unnamed system of thunderstorms that’s halfway between Carlos and the coast, and heading west, continues to look like it will develop into a cyclone. If it does get to tropical storm or hurricane strength before it passes 140 degrees west longitude, its name will be Dolores.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Hurricane Carlos, as hurricanes do, is behaving unpredictably.

The storm is still a few days from Central Pacific waters, and in recent hours has weakened. Weather forecasters aren’t sure why.

(Image: Carlos is the cyclone spinning on the left, while an unnamed area of thunderstorms to the right has a 30 to 50 percent chance of turning into a cyclone by Tuesday, forecasters say. Credit: NOAA.)

It has actually dropped to tropical storm force, (it’s being called Tropical Storm Carlos again) but meteorologists are forecasting it to strengthen to hurricane force again by Tuesday, and then begin another weakening phase.

Meanwhile, the hurricane continues to move toward Hawai’i at a rate that carries it 240 miles a day. At this writing its center is a little more than 2,000 miles from the Big Island, and well south. At 11 a.m. Hawaiian time, it was 10.3 degrees north latitude and 121.3 west longitude. It is heading west at 9 knots. That’s a little slower than yesterday.

The 11 a.m. Carlos advisory is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

In their official estimates, National Weather Service officials admit to being a little puzzled by the appearent pulsing behavior of the hurricane’s strength: weak-strong-weak-strong.

“It still is a bit of a mystery why the cyclone weakened as much as it has today,” the service said. Computer models indicate that it should bulk up again, in part because of warmer water where it’s traveling.

“There does exist a two to three day window for Carlos to restrengthen as it traverses over warm waters and through an environment of low vertical shear and moist unstable air,” the experts say.

After that—by Friday or Saturday of this week, it is forecast to sail into cooler waters again, as well as facing a region with contrary upper winds that could weaken the storm.

There are lots of options for this storm: It could dissipate entirely, it could gain strength and keep going, it could keep its westerly course and pass well away from the Islands, it could dissipate but bring the Islands lots of rain in a little more than a week. Shucks, it could spin around and head back for Mexico. It’s happened before.

Meanwhile, for those of us fascinated by weather, a correspondent alerted us that there’s another feature right behind Carlos.

About halfway between Carlos and the Central American coast is a very large area of rain and thunderstorms. The weather service is predicting there’s a 30 to 50 percent chance of this system turning into a cyclone within two days.

“Conditions appear favorable for the gradual development of this system,” forecasters say.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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The cyclone whirling toward Hawaiian waters gained strength overnight and is expected to reach hurricane force within hours.

It is still some 2,400 miles and 9 or 10 days away from the Islands, presuming it maintains strength and its current course.

Tropical depression 4E has been renamed Tropical Storm Carlos, and should be Hurricane Carlos before the end of the day.

(Image: Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Carlos Saturday morning. It was expected to get more organized and reach hurricane strength by late in the day. Credit: NOAA.)

You’re not reading about this storm in local media, and not nearing about it from Civil Defense for good reason. Routes and strengths of tropical cyclones are so dramatically variable that it’s virtually impossible to accurately predict their action over more than half a week.

But there are a few factors that justify attention to Carlos. Here’s the official National Weather Service forecast Saturday morning, July 11, 2009.

One: This year we are now officially in an El Nino condition. Hawai’i residents heard about it this week in print and electronic media. Readers of this column heard about it more than a month ago. Hurricane frequency and strenth is statistically greater in El Nino years than not.

Two: Carlos will be the first hurricane of the season to enter the Central Pacific. It is currently moving east to west and is forecast to cross 140 degrees west latitude from the Eastern to Central Pacific on Thursday morning.

Three: It is close enough to the equator at 10.4 degrees north latitude that it is in waters warm enough to support hurricane development.

The National Weather Service says the storm is on the verge of switching to hurricane strength, and may be forming an eye—one of the features of a hurricane.

At this time, there do not appear to be strong contrary winds aloft that could shear the storm apart, causing it to weaken. However, as Carlos travels slightly north of west, it is moving into somewhat cooler water.

In the words of the weather service, cool water is a “less favorable environment.” That means it could weaken somewhat toward the end of the week.

Carlos is now forecast to reach wind speeds in the neighborhood of 100 miles an hour. It is moving to the west-northwest at 11 miles an hour or a little faster.

What should a Hawai’i resident do about this? It’s certainly not a time to panic. As we suggested yesterday, it’s not a bad time to check on whether your family disaster kit is up to date, or to put one together if you don’t have one.

And it’s a weekend. For folks not working, it wouldn’t be inappropriate to walk around your house or apartment and do some due diligence—the kind we all ought to do in any hurricane season.

Is there stuff stacked on your lanai that ought to be put away? Are there tree limbs that have grown close enough to the house to cause damage in a big wind. Now’s the time to deal with them.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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