Hawaii Travel

Archive for August, 2009

The storm Felicia at this point appears to be more of a rain and surf event for Hawai’i than a wind event.

(Image: the 11 p.m. Monday storm track estimate. Credit: NOAA.)

The storm on Tuesday morning is ready to enter the middle of the Hawaiian chain from the east.

Surf is already affecting the Islands. Maui County and parts of the Big Island should be feeling the effects within hours of dawn. And with the storm heading westward at about 10 miles an hour, it will be affecting O’ahu and Kaua’i counties in the next day or so.

Overnight, Felicia’s maximum winds have dropped to 40 miles an hour, and appear ready to drop further. The storm is expected to be below tropical storm strength as it enters the state’s waters.

That said, a rain and surf event can have serious consequences. Civil Defense authorities are warning about flooding, erosion and all the damages associated with these.

Here is what the National Weather Service was predicting before dawn Tuesday:

“The official intensity forecast calls for Felicia to weaken to a depression within 24 hours and to a remnant low by 48 hours… Felicia may undergo more rapid weakening than forecast if the circulation spins down faster than anticipated.”

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Felicia has weakened significantly overnight, and its forecast path has jogged south again, with the storm’s middle set to cross the Alenuihaha Channel.

(Image: The 5 a.m. anticipated track of what will then be Tropical Depression Felicia. Credit: NOAA.)

That takes the heart of the storm just south of Maui County and farther south of Oahu and Kauai.

The winds have dropped enough that the storm is set to be a tropical depression as it heads across the Islands.

In our previous post just a few hours ago, it was expected to maintain winds of tropical storm strength across the state, but the strongest winds are now anticipated to be somewhat weaker, in the 35 to 45 mile an hour range, with more powerful gusts.

For much of the state, winds may not be that strong, but heavy rain and flooding remain a threat during the next three days. For more see the post below.

The first folks to be impacted may be those on the Big Island. Here’s is Hawai’i County Civil Defense latest statement on the storm.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Once-hurricane Felicia’s forecast track has taken another nudge northward and if it were still at hurricane strength, it would be Hawai’i's worst nightmare.

(Image, the Sunday night estimate of Felicia’s track. Credit: NOAA.)

The track takes the strongest portion of the storm right over the heart of the Hawaiian chain, entering at Maui County and passing directly over O’ahu—the economic, political and transportation center of the state.

And it will spend a little more time blasting the Islands, as its forward speed has slowed.

“The latest track forecast continues to bring Felicia across the mid-section of the state. This may potentially bring flooding rains and strong gusty winds to many of the Hawaiian islands,” the National Weather Services says.

Tropical storm systems normally extend high into the atmosphere, but Felicia has lost much of its altitude. While low-level winds are pushing it from the east, upper-elevation winds are blowing from the west, and the combination has sheared the top off Felicia.

While it is weakening, the system is weakening very slowly, and is now expected to maintain tropical storm windspeeds all the way across the populated Hawaiian islands. It is forecast to enter the Hawaiian chain with 50-mile winds and leave the western end of the chain with 40-mile winds. Gusts will be higher.

At present, tropical storm-strength winds extend considerably more than 100 miles on either side of the storm center. The storm is moving forward at about 10 miles an hour, which means that if the center crosses your location, you’re potentially facing as much as 20 hours of tropical storm-force winds—along with the associated heavy rain.

Based on the storm route in the 2 a.m. forecast today, Big Island residents should be feeling the effects of Felicia tonight (Monday, 8/20), Maui County tonight and early tomorrow, and O’ahu much of the day Tuesday and Tuesday night. Kauai can expect storm conditions most of the day Wednesday.

Caveat: That’s based on our calculations. The weather service has not been making those timing predictions.

And once again, it’s not just the wind, but the rain. Even if winds taper off, the rain associated with this storm system will likely be very heavy.

“Regardless of the intensity of Felicia when it reaches the Hawaiian Islands, locally heavy rainfall is still expected to occur and flash flooding remains a possibility,” the weather service says.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Hurricane Felicia–now Tropical Storm Felicia–continues to weaken, but its predicted path has adjusted northward, so that it could impact all the Hawaiian Islands.

As of Sunday morning, it was forecast to approach the Big Island Monday afternoon as a tropical storm, but the National Weather Service calculates the strongest possibilities are that wind strength will have dropped below 39 miles an hour by the time it gets to land.

(Image: The predicted Hurricane Felicia track, as of very early Sunday morning. Credit: NOAA.)

It remains possible that powerful and damaging winds will accompany the passage over the Islands, however.

The entire state is under a tropical storm warning, and the eastern islands under flood and small craft advisories. See here.

That’s the caution for Hawai’i residents. Possible high winds argue for putting away anything likely to fly and become a dangerous missile, for pruning limbs away from eaves, for taking down tarp tents and so forth. Once homes are buttoned down, it’s time to prepare for disruptions in public services—water, power, and communications.

Every home ought to be equipped with an emergency kit that will carry residents for several days without outside help—food, water, medications, flashlight, portable radio and so forth. Check the front pages of the phone book for details on hurricane preparedness.

Earlier estimates took the center of Felicia over the Big Island and then had it angling south, away from the other islands. But the latest calculations take it on a more northerly path, bringing the center across Maui instead of the Big Island, and keeping the entire state within the cone of possible paths.

In terms of planning, that means every resident of every island should be preparing for strong winds, and perhaps more importantly, the possibility of severe rain—and flooding.

It’s important to keep in mind that the location of the center is just a guide. This is a big storm, and its strong winds and thunderstorms extend dozens of miles out from the center. Thus, while the center may not get to Maui and the Big Island until Monday night, it will likely be windy and rainy there during the day on Monday.

It should be moving quickly, and be south of Kaua’i by Tuesday night, but again, the western island could be feeling impacts earlier.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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A benefit of travel is perspective.

In a visit this week to the remote peninsula and islands of Door County, Wisconsin, I found a tantalizing series of models for island life.

(Image: the windmill next to the Washington Island Electric Cooperative power plant in Lake Michigan.)

FAMILY FARMING

Many of the farmers here market their produce direct to customers, via roadside venues of various kinds.

Some market firewood, left at the edge of their properties bundled and with a price tag. Grab a bundle, leave $4.

Some have “U-Pick” operations, in which customers go out into the fields to pick their own cherries or other produce, and pay for what they come out with.

Some have small or large shops, selling produce, art, crafts and processed foods. (A cherry orchard and winery selling fresh cherries, bottled wines, flavored vinegars, jams and jellies, dried cherries, frozen pitted cherries (for baking) and much more.)

The farmers, their families (including kids) and neighbors, work these ventures.

It’s a business model that seems to support small family farming. Of course in Hawai’i, it’s not only not common, it’s illegal without a permit. And permit requests are sometimes denied. Go figure.

BIKES

Bicycles are all over this resort community. People who stay in condos use them. People who stay in hotels use them. People camping in shoreline parks use them. A lot of businesses have bike racks out front. Roads have wide shoulders in most places.

On Washington Island, where there are no shoulders, the bikes ride down the middle of the traffic lane, and folks in cars pass them when they can. Admittedly it’s a small island, and traffic is slow anyway.

Families commonly haul babies and toddlers in bike trailers. (It was amusing to see a biker in full spandex, colorful biking gear and a racing helmet, hauling his daughter in a trailer behind his racing bike.)

In one hamlet, the local visitor association had a rack of free bikes. Take it for a ride, return it when you’re done. No rental fee.

POWER

A couple of major windfarms are visible as you drive into Door County, heading up the long narrow peninsula that juts into massive Lake Michigan. Their vast propellors sweep arcs across the sky.

Out on little Washington Island, a smaller windmill generates power alongside the fossil fuel generation plant at the Washington Island Electric Cooperative.

This small utility—it has 845 customers and 4 employees—has something else that’s interesting, as well. It is one of the few places where the internet is carried on the power lines. In association with IBM, the co-op provides high-speed internet over the community electrical lines.

This technology, sometimes called BPL for Broadband over PowerLine, is described as ideal for small rural communities. Washington Island has only about 800 property owners, of which a third are subscribed to the internet service. For more, see here.

One source said the service is a little slower than top-speed broadband, but 10 times faster than dial-up.

The Washington Island Electric Co-op is also installing, with IBM help and some federal financing assistance, a smart grid, which will enable it to better understand and manage its electric load.

All interesting stuff to folks from islands.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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Hurricane Felicia is bearing down on the Islands, the first cyclone of the season to have the Islands so directly in its path, but it appears to be dying fast.

(Image: This is an infrared image of Felicia at 1:30 a.m. Hawaii time, still a powerful hurricane. Credit: NOAA)

If they were betting folks, the forecasters at the National Weather Service would be placing serious wagers that the storm will be down to gusty winds and a lot of rain by the end of the weekend.

So, that doesn’t mean there won’t be trouble for Hawai’i. But thunderstorms and flooding now appear more likely than roofs lifting off and going flapping downwind. That’s for the Big Island and Maui, which could start feeling some effects late Monday or early Tuesday.

Oahu and Kaua’i could see even milder effects at midweek, as the west-moving storm is forecast to start curving south, away from the Islands, after crossing the Big Island.

It doesn’t mean that Felicia can safely be ignored.

The forecasting service says the storm is losing strength as it moves into cooler waters near Hawai’i, and during the weekend is expected to also meet contrary winds at upper elevations, which will tend to weaken its powerful circulation pattern.

One caveat in the forecast is that Felicia’s weakening could be slower than expected, meaning winds will be a little stronger by the time they get to Hawai’i—although still far below hurricane strength. Another caveat is that forecasts of a cyclone’s path are notoriously tricky more than a couple of days out.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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WHAT is with the sky lately? god, last friday was the nicest sunset ever. i guess maybe climate changes? or … shoot, i could probably just google it. well anyway, it was a superrad sunset just in time for pecha kuchaat the academy last friday. you can bet i was there early to get a [...]
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saw this swine (enter right) from ralph krawcyk and just about shat myself. nice work. the view from down here. is this. totally.

got another batch of photos waiting in the wings. a lot from when ravi drums was at home. it’s fun to give other people my camera. stay tuned.
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…you guys all can be a part of his installation too. he’s working at 901 waimanu st off ward (that old “the spot” place) to make the piece he’s unveiling aug 7th at soho.
it would be similar to this i imagine. only, like, slower.
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Here we go again.

Another tropical cyclone behaving unpredictably as it nears Hawai’i.

Here’s where to find some information about the storm.

How should a Hawai’i resident respond to Tropical Storm Lana?

Be alert, and get your ducks in a row.

A key preparedness measure: have your emergency kit ready. This is a container with a selection of things that can cover your immediate needs in case your power’s out, water’s off, food’s blown away and so forth.

It should have your medications, a couple of days worth of food, some water, a radio for receiving emergency information alerts, and a bunch of other things. Check the front pages of the phone book for a complete list.

For folks who haven’t done it, the low likelihood that Lana will strike is not a reason to put this off. It’s hurricane season. Every family ought to have an emergency kit ready—whether for hurricane, tsunami, flood or other disaster—if only so you don’t have to join the mad rush to sores for last-minute purchases of batteries, toilet paper, rice and Spam.

At our latest check on Saturday August 1, Lana was still scheduled to pass south of the Islands, traveling east to west. If it stays on the path, the main impact will be surf on southern shores.

But Lana isn’t doing what forecasters predict. It is moving into an area with contrary winds aloft, which should weaken it, but Lana is not weakening.

It should pass south of the Big Island tonight. Chances are it keeps going.

If not, be prepared.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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